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KEY findings
48% increase in remarketing spend in South Africa
Nigeria reaches 34% Android finance install fraud rate
52% drop in shopping app UA spend in South Africa
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introduction
From momentum to maturity: SSA readies for deeper mobile transformation
Mobile continues to power ahead in Sub-Saharan Africa. While overall economic growth in the region slowed compared to previous forecasts, the first half of 2025 still saw steady expansion in mobile adoption—particularly in South Africa, where smartphone usage climbed rapidly. The broader mobile industry remained a key driver of regional economies, contributing $140 billion US dollars to Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP in 2023. That figure is expected to grow to $170 billion in the next five years, according to GSMA.
Yet the full potential remains far from tapped. As of 2023, fewer than one in three people in Sub-Saharan Africa used mobile internet. This gap signals immense headroom for digital growth—especially in a region where 70% of the population is under 30. Youth is not just the future, it’s the force behind today’s digital acceleration.
This is a mobile-first region, where better coverage and faster speeds are paving the way for the rise of the superapp: single platforms that integrate messaging, social media, shopping, banking, and more. And governments, telcos, and private institutions alike are investing to support this transformation—pushing toward a goal of 4G making up half of all mobile connections by 2030.
But without continued public and private investment, this momentum could stall. Long-term growth depends on a collaborative digital ecosystem that ensures access, infrastructure, and innovation reach every corner of the continent.
In this report, we unpack what’s happening behind the numbers. Drawing from billions of app data points across the region, we’ll spotlight the trends shaping mobile marketing in 2025—and what they mean for the future.
*All results are based on fully anonymous and aggregated data. To ensure statistical validity, we follow strict volume thresholds and methodologies and only present data when these conditions are met.
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Key trends
Android remains the region’s scale engine
Between 2018 and 2024, app install trends across South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya reveal a continent in digital transformation. While all are moving toward mobile-first growth, each market is evolving at its own pace. Android continues to power scale. iOS, meanwhile, offers a more nuanced signal: economic confidence, digital fluency, and aspirational demand.
In South Africa, we may be seeing the effects of a premium market in flux. Android is forecasted to grow steadily in 2025 (+14%), but iOS—after stagnating last year—is expected to rebound by +68%. This would mark the second major spike in three years, pointing to a volatile but resilient appetite for high-end experiences. The bet here: growth will increasingly come from depth, not breadth—user quality, retention, and long-term value may define success more than raw volume.
Nigeria, on the other hand, is entering a phase of strategic consolidation. Forecasts show Android at +15% and iOS at +23%, indicating sustained growth—but slightly tempered. The underlying shift? From acquisition to monetization. If urban, high-value users continue to rise, the path forward could depend less on expanding reach and more on optimizing engagement and ROI.
Meanwhile, Kenya shows that even price-sensitive markets can pivot toward premium. Android is expected to grow +21%, while iOS is forecasted to surge +59%, continuing a dramatic post-2022 rebound. The country remains price-sensitive, but increasingly upwardly mobile—making it a dual-speed market with growing opportunity for high-value experiences.
Overall install trend by platform (normalized)
Paid UA is getting smarter across markets
Across Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, paid installs are on the rise. But beneath the surface, this trend reflects more than just performance—it signals evolving user acquisition (UA) strategies shaped by local dynamics, economic shifts, and changing consumer behavior.
In Nigeria, paid installs nearly doubled between Q1 and Q2—suggesting more than just cyclical growth. With telecom data prices rising, marketers appear to be prioritizing high-intent users despite the increased cost. This signals a shift toward value-based UA, where budgets are optimized for performance and ROI, not just scale.
South Africa, meanwhile, saw a 74% YoY surge in non-organic installs (NOIs) in H1 2025—driven by new legislation that unlocked access to a fresh mobile audience. The April removal of a luxury tax on smartphones under ZAR2,500 (~$137 USD) expanded the market, especially among lower-income users. Marketers moved fast to capture this demand. iOS, long hampered by device costs, is gaining traction via the refurbished market—where cost-conscious but digitally mature users are now in play.
At the same time, South Africa’s adaptation to POPIA (Protection of Personal Information Act) has accelerated the shift toward first-party data strategies. As marketers refine consent-driven approaches, iOS UA—once limited by signal loss—is becoming more scalable and measurable.
In Kenya, Android remains dominant, and paid installs rose by 26%, driven by greater digital access and seasonal peaks. Kenya may not be platform-sophisticated yet, but could seasonal UA bursts signal readiness for smarter segmentation? For now, breadth drives growth, but retention and monetization will be key to long-term ROI—especially in high-stakes periods like Q4.
Paid UA is getting smarter across markets
Efficiency is the new growth strategy
UA ad spend declined in the first half of the year—dropping 20% in South Africa, 17% in Nigeria, and 26% in Kenya. Most of this pullback is tied to reduced investment in Android user acquisition.
Yet Android NOIs continue to rise. This suggests marketers are achieving greater efficiency, leveraging smarter targeting, seasonal spikes, and stronger organic baselines to sustain install growth while lowering costs. In volume-driven markets like Kenya, this marks a shift toward leaner, performance-focused UA strategies.
Meanwhile, iOS is quietly gaining ground—and not by accident. In South Africa and Nigeria, UA investment in iOS has actually increased over the past year. Why? Likely due to a shifting mix of players and strategy. It’s not just local brands driving this trend—it’s Chinese app developers.
In H1 2025, Chinese companies accounted for over 40% of all iOS UA spend in South Africa, and nearly 60% in Nigeria. This aggressive push may reflect a broader geopolitical strategy: with economic pressure and U.S. trade tensions rising at home, Chinese firms appear to be reallocating UA budgets to emerging, mobile-forward markets. Africa, with its scale, rapid digital adoption, and efficient CPMs, is emerging as a strategic hedge.
Overall UA ad spend trend by platform (normalized)
UA ad spend split by country HQ (H1 2025) *
* Read as “apps from which countries invest the most running campaigns in the above markets”
Remarketing spend rockets in South Africa
Following the drop in UA spend across Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya, the next layer of Africa’s mobile story in H1 2025 lies in remarketing behavior—and what it reveals about market maturity.
While UA budgets declined YoY, remarketing spend in South Africa grew +48%. Finance led the shift with +97% growth, followed by Shopping at +70%. These gains suggest that marketers—especially in high-value sectors—are moving beyond acquisition and investing in long-term user value.
This renewed focus reflects a maturing app marketing ecosystem. Install volumes and NOIs remain strong, but the emphasis is shifting toward retention, reactivation, and efficiency. South African marketers are leveraging first-party data more strategically—especially in the wake of POPIA—to maximize return across the full user lifecycle.
Chinese investment is amplifying this trend. In H1 2025, apps from China represented over 95% of total remarketing spend in South Africa, aligning with a broader pivot toward mobile-forward, cost-efficient markets. Rather than treating South Africa as a short-term acquisition play, Chinese apps now appear to view it as a market where sustained user value can be extracted through remarketing—a clear signal of strategic confidence
Nigeria tells a different story. Not only is UA spend down, but remarketing investment is also declining, with Chinese spend falling over the past two years. This may point to structural barriers: higher data costs, weaker re-engagement infrastructure, or challenges in scaling loyalty at the same efficiency.
South Africa is fast becoming Africa’s benchmark for performance marketing sophistication—blending UA efficiency, platform diversification, and a rising focus on lifecycle strategies. For Nigeria and Kenya, the challenge ahead may not just be growth—but depth.
Android remarketing ad spend trend (normalized)
Android remarketing spend split by country HQ (H1 2025) *
* Read as “apps from which countries invest the most running campaigns in the above markets”
Finance apps are now embedded in everyday life
The global mobile money ecosystem has reached a historic inflection point. According to GSMA’s State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money 2025, there are now 2.1 billion registered accounts worldwide — the highest number ever recorded. Notably, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for over half, with 1.1 billion registered users across the region.
This milestone highlights a deeper truth: while mobile finance is growing globally, Sub-Saharan Africa is its driving force. The region has become a hub for mobile-first financial innovation, where fintechs, neobanks, and superapps are reshaping how people interact with money.
Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa are fueling this transformation. Finance app installs have surged, reflecting a shift toward mobile-first behavior and widening access to digital financial tools.
In Nigeria, installs are now 15 times higher than in 2018, driven by a young, digital-native population. A new initiative between the Central Bank and the Nigerian Educational Research and Development Council aims to embed financial literacy into school curricula — a long-term investment in financial inclusion and digital confidence.
Kenya, a long-standing leader, continues to expand its mobile money dominance. M-Pesa plays a central role in everyday commerce, savings, and transfers, functioning as both a superapp and a financial safety net.
In South Africa, fintech is booming on the back of a strong banking sector and progressive regulation. Since 2022, app installs have climbed steadily. Digital-first efforts from institutions like Nedbank and Capitec sit alongside innovation from TymeBank and Yoco — expanding access across both urban centers and underserved communities.
Sub-Saharan Africa isn’t catching up — it’s setting the pace for mobile financial transformation.
Finance apps are now embedded in everyday life
From function to relevance, the bar for finance apps is rising
If 2025 marks a broader pivot toward efficiency and smarter engagement across South Africa’s app economy, finance is the vertical leading that shift. While Nigeria grabs headlines with its scale and volatility, South Africa is quietly building a model for performance-led, sustainable growth.
In H1 2025, Android NOIs for finance apps in South Africa remained steady—reflecting a mature, stable environment. Unlike Nigeria, where installs dipped before rebounding in Q2, South Africa isn’t reacting to shocks. It’s optimizing for consistency, retention, and long-term value. The priority isn’t just acquiring users—it’s keeping the right ones.
Here, marketers recognize that the real challenge is no longer acquisition, but engagement. Winning apps are embedding relevance at every touchpoint—through personalized offers, tailored product journeys, and ongoing value. Increasingly, that value extends beyond the app itself: into mobile web, WhatsApp bots, USSD menus, and even physical in-store agents.
This omnichannel approach is transforming strategy. In H1, remarketing spend for finance apps in South Africa nearly doubled, as brands focused on reactivating lapsed users through lifecycle-aware messaging. Superapps are helping accelerate this shift, layering services on top of traditional banking and offering frictionless re-entry points.
Meanwhile, Nigeria remains dynamic but less stable. Android NOIs declined early in the year before bouncing back—indicative of a market still navigating growing pains. But the scale is undeniable, with wallets, lending tools, and superapps gaining rapid traction.
Across both markets, superapps are redefining reactivation, evolving fintech from single-service tools into sticky, multi-service ecosystems. What started as a loan app may now offer ride-hailing or rewards—unlocking entirely new reasons to return.
Finance Android paid install trend (normalized)
In Nigeria, finance apps are the #1 target for install fraud
As Africa’s digital economy continues its rapid climb, fraud is evolving just as quickly—often outpacing protective infrastructure in many markets. While growth brings opportunity, it also exposes brands to new vulnerabilities, especially in mobile advertising. The continent’s accelerated digital transformation is often unmatched by the adoption of safeguards such as real-time fraud detection, global standards (e.g., TAG, GARM), and brand safety protocols. For many advertisers, this creates a high-risk environment where invalid traffic (IVT), bots, and unsafe ad placements remain persistent threats.
In 2025, South Africa stands out as a market making meaningful progress. In the first half of the year, Android install fraud dropped by 31% YoY, bringing the fraud rate on this platform down to 21%. Yet the category remains fraud’s top target—simply because that’s where the money is. High-payout campaigns and fierce competition continue to attract sophisticated attacks, demanding constant vigilance and updated protection strategies.
Nigeria, by contrast, is facing a renewed wave of fraud. After a brief plateau, malicious actors have returned with more advanced tactics. In H1 2025, Android finance install fraud surpassed 34%, marking a 44% YoY increase. This reflects Nigeria’s surging app economy, where mobile finance has become mainstream and competition for users is intense. Without urgent investment in fraud detection and media quality audits, marketers risk falling behind.
As 2025 progresses, the divide between proactive and reactive markets is widening. Fraud is no longer just a technical issue—it’s a strategic one. To win in Africa’s mobile-first future, marketers must stay agile. Because in fraud, what worked yesterday won’t protect you tomorrow
Finance app install fraud rate
iOS shopping app installs in SA set to soar 89% in 2025
Mobile shopping in South Africa has transformed from a pandemic workaround into a mainstream lifestyle. While Covid-19 lockdowns initially drove a spike in shopping app installs, the momentum hasn’t just held—it’s accelerated. By mid-2025, shopping app installs had more than tripled since 2018, fueled by improved mobile infrastructure, digital inclusion efforts, and a thriving local eCommerce scene led by platforms like Takealot and Zando.
What sets South Africa apart in 2025 is not just access—it’s integration. Mobile wallets, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options, and loyalty programs have made app-based shopping more seamless and inclusive. WhatsApp, used by over 90% of internet users (per DataReportal’s Digital 2025 report), has become a commerce powerhouse: not just for chatting, but for browsing, buying, and resolving customer issues. eCommerce brands are increasingly embedding WhatsApp into their app strategies, using automation, deep linking, and remarketing to guide users from discovery to conversion.
The ecosystem is still Android-dominant, but the rise of refurbished iPhones has introduced a wave of price-conscious yet high-value users to iOS. In fact, shopping app installs were forecast to increase by 10% on Android, versus a striking 89% on iOS in 2025—signaling broader reach and deeper engagement across platforms.
Nigeria’s path has been rockier. Despite a large and mobile-first population, shopping app growth stumbled after Covid. Logistics challenges, inconsistent digital payment adoption, and high data costs—especially outside major hubs—have made it harder to drive sustained growth.
By mid-2025, both countries reflect the shifting reality of digital commerce in Africa. South Africa highlights what’s possible when infrastructure, affordability, and consumer trust align. Nigeria, rich in opportunity, points to the barriers still to overcome. Together, they reveal a continent in transition—where mobile shopping is no longer a trend, but a test of ecosystem readiness.
Shopping install trend in South Africa by platform (normalized)
UA spend falls as shopping apps focus on loyalty and LTV
The widening gap between install growth and user acquisition (UA) spend signals a more mature approach. Shopping app downloads continue to rise—driven in large part by iOS growth between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025—yet UA budgets are softening, especially on Android. In South Africa, user acquisition spend by shopping apps fell 52% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024. But that’s not a contradiction—it’s a deliberate shift.
As mentioned earlier, marketers are moving beyond top-of-funnel acquisition, shifting focus deeper into the user journey. Instead of scaling new user growth, brands are prioritizing retention, re-engagement, and monetization—especially among high-LTV users already in their ecosystem.
Android’s massive market share means many apps have saturated urban audiences. In cities like Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban, top eCommerce apps already boast enormous install bases. Trying to re-acquire these users doesn’t scale. Instead, budgets are being reallocated toward lifecycle marketing: personalized push notifications, in-app loyalty programs, and re-engagement flows via WhatsApp.
iOS tells a different story. Growth here is being fueled by the rise of refurbished devices, opening access to a more premium segment. The sharp rebound in iOS UA spend during Q2 2025 reflects this shift—favoring quality over quantity. UA spend also tends to peak around key seasonal moments like end-of-year sales and national holidays, when conversion potential is highest.
This evolution signals greater reliance on predictive LTV modeling, in-app engagement tactics, and smart remarketing. Installs are no longer the finish line, they’re just the beginning.
South Africa’s mobile commerce leaders aren’t chasing volume. They’re playing a smarter game: one where growth comes not from flooding the funnel, but from unlocking value within it.
Shopping UA ad spend trend in South Africa by platform (normalized)
Bot surge underpins 75% of shopping app fraud in South Africa
As app installs continue to rise and UA spend shifts, fraudsters are evolving just as quickly. South Africa’s booming shopping app space has become fertile ground, not just for marketers, but for malicious actors looking to exploit user demand and budget reallocations. By Q3 2025, iOS install fraud rates in the shopping category climbed back above 10%, marking a troubling resurgence just as the platform experienced notable growth between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
This shift isn’t random. It mirrors broader ecosystem changes. As Android UA spend pulls back—driven by saturation and tightening budgets—fraudsters have followed the money to iOS, where fresh investments and high-value users make the platform a more lucrative target. Bots, in particular, have surged. They now account for nearly 75% of all shopping app fraud in South Africa, up from just 5% in Q3 2023. It’s a staggering pivot that underscores the adaptability of fraud networks.
The decline in install hijacking during this same period might seem like a win, but it’s more of a trade-off. Fraudsters have simply changed costumes. Bot-driven fraud, especially on iOS, is more sophisticated, harder to detect, and often more damaging in the long term.
For marketers, this means UA strategy can’t just be about cost efficiency or LTV, it must include fraud resilience. As budgets shift and iOS becomes the new battleground, protection tools and real-time fraud monitoring are non-negotiable. Growth is still happening—but unchecked, it risks being undermined by increasingly advanced threats. In this next phase, the winners won’t just be the apps that acquire users wisely—but the ones that protect them fiercely.
Shopping app install fraud rate in South Africa by platform
Shopping app install fraud split per type in South Africa
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
Focus on performance, not just scale
In fast-evolving markets like Nigeria and South Africa, shift UA strategies toward ROI-driven growth instead of volume—maturity demands smarter, not bigger, investments.
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Explore iOS users as a growth lever
Target digitally mature, cost-efficient users beyond Android saturation—especially in price-sensitive markets where refurbished iOS adoption is accelerating.
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Rethink retention as your new growth engine
Retention strategies—like personalized offers or remarketing—are key where acquisition costs climb. Start reallocating budgets gradually, adapting to each market’s readiness.
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Design omnichannel journeys for everyday utility
In fragmented tech landscapes, meet users across touchpoints—from WhatsApp to USSD to in-store. The right channel mix varies by country, so stay flexible.
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